Estimating lifetime and 10-year risk of lung cancer.

TitleEstimating lifetime and 10-year risk of lung cancer.
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2018
AuthorsBruder, C, Bulliard, J-L, Germann, S, Konzelmann, I, Bochud, M, Leyvraz, M, Chiolero, A
JournalPreventive medicine reports
Date Published09/2018
KeywordsLifetime risk, lung cancer, Public health indicator, Switzerland

Lung cancer is the commonest cancer worldwide. Mortality and incidence rates are traditionally used to assess cancer burden and as public health indicators. However, these metrics are difficult to interpret at an individual level. Providing the lifetime and 10-year risks of cancer could improve risk communication. Our aim was to estimate current lifetime and 10-year risks of lung cancer by smoking status and changes in these risks between 1995 and 2013 in a Swiss population. We used all lung cancer cases recorded between 1995 and 2013 by two population-based cancer registries in the contiguous cantons of Vaud and Valais, in Western Switzerland. We estimated sex-specific lifetime risk and 10-year risk of lung cancer using the current probability method, accounting for competing risk of death. Estimates were also provided by smoking status. Between 1995 and 2013, 9623 cases of lung cancer were recorded. During this period, the lifetime risk decreased in men from 7.1% to 6.7% and increased in women from 2.5% to 4.1%. In both sexes, the 10-year risk of lung cancer increased with age until the age of 60-70 and decreased thereafter. Difference in the cumulative risk between current, former, and never smokers were very large and reported in user-friendly charts to ease risk communication. These lifetime and 10-year risk estimates could be used systematically as public health indicators. Regularly updating risk estimations are necessary for conditions like lung cancer whose incidence has changed substantially.

Alternate URL

Alternate JournalPrev Med Rep
Citation Key / SERVAL ID9021
Peer reviewRefereed
PubMed ID29942733
PubMed Central IDPMC6010924


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