Forum de statistique : conférence « A Bootstrapped Version of the Prometheus Wildland Fire Growth Model »

Prof. John Braun
Department of Computer Science, Mathematics, Physics and Statistics, University of British Columbia, Kelowna (Vancouver), BC, Canada

The Prometheus Fire Growth Model is a deterministic wildfire simulator used to predict the growth of a wildifre, in Canada and other countries. Given weather, topographical and fuel information, the simulated fire front is plotted at equally spaced times. Unpredictability of fire behaviour makes deterministic predictions inaccurate. This talk will describe a risk analysis study undertaken using Prometheus applied to random weather streams, pointing out limitations with that approach and motivating an alternative viewpoint, based on bootstrapping. By statistically modelling the data to which the Prometheus model equations are fit, it is possible to obtain a distribution of fire front predictions. This approach allows us to estimate the probability that a growing fire will eventually burn a particular location. Repeated stochastic simulation is not required, so probability contours require no more computing time than deterministic contours. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for improved fire risk analysis.

Date et heure
Jeudi, 24 Août, 2017 - 11:00
Salle de conférence C04, niveau -1, Bâtiment SC-B, Biopôle 1, route de la Corniche 2, 1066 Epalinges
Lieu inhabituel

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