Forum de statistique : conférence « A random-effects hurdle model for clustered count data with an excess of zeros to predict bycatch of endangered marine species »

Prof. Eva Cantoni
Research Center for Statistics and Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva

Understanding and reducing the incidence of accidental bycatch, particularly for vulnerable species such as sharks, is a major challenge for contemporary fisheries management worldwide. Bycatch data, most often collected by at-sea observers during fishing trips, are clustered by trip and/or vessel and typically involve a large number of zero counts and very few positive counts. Though hurdle models are very popular for count data with excess zeros, models for clustered forms have received far less attention. Here we present a novel random-effects hurdle model for bycatch data that makes available accurate estimates of bycatch probabilities as well as other cluster-specific targets. These are essential for informing conservation and management decisions as well as for identifying bycatch hotspots, often considered the first step in attempting to protect endangered marine species. We validate our methodology through simulation and use it to analyse bycatch data on critically endangered hammerhead sharks from the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service Pelagic Observer Program.

Date et heure
Vendredi, 13 Octobre, 2017 - 11:00
Salle Delachaux (étage 01), Institut universitaire de médecine sociale et préventive, Bâtiment Biopôle 2, route de la Corniche 10, 1010 Lausanne

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